Economists SLAM negative Brexit forecasts and announce UK could be £65BILLION better off
BRITAIN could be £65billion better off if the Chancellor seizes the “economic opportunities” that will arise after Brexit, according to a report set to be published this week.
The paper, produced by the eurosceptic group Economists for Free Trade, accuses official forecasts of failing to question “negative” analysis of the effect of leaving the EU ahead of last year’s referendum.
The economists said their own models reveal that, based on Britain leaving the EU in 2020, the UK would experience a fall in unemployment, rising wages and improving growth.
The paper adds that the resulting “Brexit dividend” could be used to bolster public services and introduce tax cuts.
The Economists for Free Trade group said its ‘Budget for Brexit’ report analysis factored in “long-run gains”, including price drop after abandoning EU tariffs on goods from outside of Europe, “improved export performance”, and “an end to the annual EU subscription of £10billion”.
It also says the end of EU red tape, that costs business £120billion a year, will help boost the UK economy.
The group said: “The effect of all this is to push growth up to nearly 3 per cent per annum by the mid 2020s.”
The report, set to be launched in Westminster on Tuesday, says the export boom prompted by the loss of EU tariffs will push growth up and leave a surplus of around £40billion by 2025, and £65billion five years later.
This would allow the Chancellor to pay off the national debt and pump money into the NHS, it says.
Professor Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, who authored the report, said: “Regrettably, since before the referendum the Treasury and the Office for Budget Responsibility have been consistently negative about a post-Brexit economy.
“The Chancellor must use this Budget to set out a positive vision of a Britain thriving outside the EU.
“We have set out a Budget for Brexit that would provide huge tax cuts for hard working people and cuts to corporation tax while at the same time reducing the debt to GDP ratio and enabling spending rises.”
The news is likely to be welcomed by NHS bosses after Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England, last week called for more funding in a major speech.
He said that with waiting times worsening, trust in politics would be damaged if the NHS did not get more money.
The health service chief said the budget had grown modestly in recent years, but those rises would “nose-dive” in the next few years.
Mr Stevens told delegates in Birmingham: “The NHS wasn’t on the ballot paper, but it was on the ballot bus, ‘Vote Leave for a better funded health service, £350m a week.
“Rather than our criticising these clear Brexit funding commitments to NHS patients – promises entered into by cabinet ministers and by MPs – the public want to see them honoured.
“Trust in democratic politics will not be strengthened if anyone now tries to argue, ‘You voted Brexit, partly for a better funded health service. But precisely because of Brexit, you now can’t have one.'” – Express
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