ISIS is looking a shadow of its former self, having lost almost all trace of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq. But they now have a huge presence in Europe.
Experts are predicting that the militant organisation will regroup and return should the political and physical reconstruction of those two countries be unsuccessful.
Fearful of a resurgence of ISIS and its aims of setting up a religious state, analysts have warned an “Islamic State 2.0” or “al-Qaeda 3.0” could emerge.
‘The Islamic State is almost defeated, but a radical Islamist insurgency will remain in both Iraq and Syria as the fighters turn to traditional terrorism,’ Ayham Kamel, practice head of Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNBC on Thursday.
‘However, losing the pillars of its state, ISIS no longer represents a strategic threat to the integrity of either Iraq or Syria. There’s even a possibility of alliances with al-Qaeda in Syria (the Nusra Front) as these configurations are usually fluid,’ he said.
Interestingly he added, ‘the danger here is that (with) absent reconstruction aid, terrorism will remain a key challenge. The core challenge is that the world continues to focus on military tools to defeat a problem that transcends an armed challenge.’
Which translates into, ‘if you don’t give us any money for rebuilding these towns the problem will continue until you do.’
The second part of Kamel’s threat is irrelevant because one thing is for sure; the ISIS movement will not evolve into a cyber terrorist organisation creating havoc for governments and business interests across Europe.
Generations of inbreeding have led to levels of intelligence far too low for any clever or creative form of conflict.
Which needs to be considered in context, since one of those challenges will be to find out what over one-million fighting age Muslim men, now entrenched in Europe at the expense of the taxpayer, do have in mind.
The fear is that the war-zone will switch from the Middle East to a European continent that is entirely unprepared for such a challenge.
Regeneration
Observers have warned that ISIS is unlikely to disappear, however, predicting that it will go to ground, regroup and regenerate.
Many towns and cities in parts of Syria and Iraq have been reduced to rubble during multiple battles to defeat ISIS.
Millions are estimated to have been displaced by the fighting, with hundreds of thousands more killed in the Syrian civil war, according to international non-governmental organisation Human Rights Watch.
As a result, the country faces years of reconstruction ahead. All as a result of a three year battle with an estimated 100,000 bloodthirsty jihadis.
Experts have said that ISIS was able to draw on multiple characteristics in order to evolve.
It has been a protest state, it has been and remains an insurgency and it has been, and remains, a terrorist movement with devastating consequences.
It looks increasingly like armed insurgency across Europe will be the next move.
And just imagine that.
Think for a moment of how easy it would be to coordinate, with the help of Facebook, an attack by, let’s say one-thousand jihadis in Europe.
With little more than something from a kitchen drawer, the garage or truck hire company they would be capable of creating carnage at soft European targets, all at the very same time.
Imagine how much damage will be done by this small number of Muslims butchering or running down Europeans at schools, stations, airports, supermarkets, or any of their other previously undefended targets, across a continent they now infest.
It would be the classic ‘Fifth Column Attack’ some of us now fear.
And then remember that after this there could be a thousand more days like that – Albert Jack
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